Name: Dr. Ismail Shah
Designation: Associate Professor
Department: Statistics

Qualifications: PhD      (University of Padova, Italy)
MS       (Lunds University, Sweden)
M.Sc.   (University of Peshawar, Pakistan)

(HEC Approved PHD Supervisor)

Phone: +92-51 9064-2186
Status: On Job
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View Resume

Research Interests Publications Conferences Research Projects

  • Functional Data Analysis
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time series Analysis
  • Applied Statistics
  • Quality Control
  • Nonparametric Regression

Courses Taught:

  • ST-101: Probability and Statistics
  • ST-102: Basic Statistical Inference
  • ST-302: Statistical Methods
  • ST- 301: Probability and Probability Distribution-I
  • ST- 309: Probability and Probability Distribution-II
  • ST-308: Statistical Inference-I (Estimation)
  • ST-401 Statistical Inference-II (Hypothesis testing)
  • ST-310: Regression Analysis-I
  • ST-313: Quality Control and Quality Management
  • ST-407:  Generalized Linear Models
  • ST- 403/411: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
  • ST-420: Statistical Quality Management
  • ST-609: Linear Models
  • ST-616: Time Series Analysis
  • ST-625: Recent Development in Statistics
  • ST-704: Functional Data Analysis

Current Courses:

  • ST-401: Statistical Inference-II (Hypothesis Testing)
  • ST-704: Functional Data Analysis

1.         Shah, I, Ejaz, Z, Ali, S, Aldallal, R, Kilai, M (2022): Modeling the Determinants of Out of School Children in Pakistan, Complexity (in press) (Impact Factor= 2.121, ISSN: 1076-2787)

2.         Talib, A., Ali, S., Shah, I., and Gul, F. (2022). Time and magnitude monitoring using Weibull based Max-EWMA chart. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 1-17, DOI: 10.1080/03610918.2022.2145310 (Impact Factor = 1.118, ISSN: 0361-0918).

3.         Shah, I., Muhammad, I., Ali, S., Ahmed, S., Almazah, M., and Al-Rezami, A. Y. (2022). Forecasting Day-Ahead Traffic Flow Using Functional Time Series Approach. Mathematics, 10(22), 4279, DOI: 10.3390/math10224279 (Impact Factor = 2.592, ISSN: 2227-7390).

4.         Akram, M. F., Ali, S., Shah, I., and Muslim Raza, S. M. (2022). Max-EWMA Chart Using Beta and Unit Nadarajah and Haghighi Distributions. Journal of Mathematics, 2022. Article ID 9374740, DOI: 0.1155/2022/9374740 (Impact Factor = 1.555, ISSN: 2314-4629)

5.         Shah, I., Iftikar, H., Ali, S (2022), Modeling and forecasting electricity demand and prices: a comparison of alternative approaches, Journal of Mathematics, 2022, Article ID 3581037, DOI: 10.1155/2022/3581037   (Impact Factor = 1.555, ISSN: 2314-4629)

6.         Taimoor, M., Ali, S., Shah, I., Muwanika, F. R. (2022). COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2022, Article ID 3581037, DOI: 10.1155/2022/6001876 (Impact Factor = 2.809, ISSN: 1748-670X)

7.         Shah, I., Jan, F., Ali, S. (2022), Functional Data Approach For Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022, Article ID 6709779, DOI: 10.1155/2022/6709779 (Impact Factor = 1.305, ISSN: 1024-123X)

8.         Ibrar, F., Ali, S., and Shah, I., (2022), A Comparison of Single and Double Threshold ROC Plots for Mixture Distributions, Journal of Applied Statistics, in press, -. DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2022.2122027

9.         Ali, S, Fazal, S., Shah, I., Raza, S. M. M., and Tahir, M. (2022), Bayesian Analysis for Geometric Shapes in Additive Manufacturing, Journal of Taibah University for Science, 16(1), 836-853. DOI: 10.1080/16583655.2022.2122261(Impact Factor = 3.459, ISSN: 1658-3655)

10.       Ali, S., Akram, M. F., Shah, I.  (2022). Max-EWMA Chart Using Beta and Simplex Distributions for Time and Magnitude Monitoring, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022, Article ID 7306775, 2022. DOI:10.1155/2022/7306775 (Impact Factor = 1.430, ISSN: 1024-123X)

11.       Ali, S., Ara, J., Shah, I. (2022). A comparison of different parameter estimation methods for exponentially modified Gaussian distribution. Afrika Matematika, 33(2), 1-34. DOI: 10.1007/s13370-022-00995-w (Impact Factor = 0, ISSN: 1012-9405)

12.       Nabeel, M., Ali, S.,  Shah, I. (2022). Proportional hazard‐based robust monitoring schemes using logistic distribution. Quality and Reliability Engineering International. 38(7), 3304-3321, DOI: 10.1002/qre.3118(Impact Factor=2.885, ISSN: 1099-1638)

13.       Jan, F., Shah, I.,  Ali, S. (2022). Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting Using Functional Time Series Analysis. Energies, 15(9), 3423, DOI: 10.3390/en15093423 (Impact Factor=3.004, ISSN: 1996-1073)

14.       Talib, A., Ali, S., Shah, I. (2022). Max-EWMA chart for time and magnitude monitoring using generalized exponential distribution. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 1-16. DOI: 10.1080/03610918.2022.2058548 (Impact Factor = 1.118, ISSN: 0361-0918)

15.       Akram, M. F., Ali, S., Shah, I., Marcon, G. (2022). Unit Interval Time and Magnitude Monitoring Using Beta and Unit Gamma Distributions. Journal of Mathematics, 2022, 7951748, DOI: 10.1155/2022/7951748 (Impact Factor = 0.971, ISSN: 2314-4629)

16.       Ahmed, N, Ali, S, Shah, I (2022). Type-I censored data monitoring using different conditional statistics. Quality and Reliability Engineering International. 38(1) 64-88. DOI:10.1002/qre.2958 (Impact Factor=2.885 , ISSN: 1099-1638)

17.       Lone, S. A.., Panahi, H., Shah, I. (2022). Bayesian prediction interval for a constant-stress partially accelerated life test model under censored data. Journal of Taibah University for Science, 15(1), 1178-1187. DOI:10.1080/16583655.2021.2023847 (Impact Factor = 2.688 , ISSN: 1658-3655)

18.       Bibi, B., Ali, S.,  Shah, I. (2022). Robustness of shape parameter for Erlang and Weibull Bayesian acceptance sampling plans. Scientia Iranica. 1-19, DOI: 10.24200/SCI.2022.56796.4914 (Impact Factor = 1.435, ISSN: 2345-3605)

19.       Ahmed, N, Ali, S, Shah, I (2022). Control charts for monitoring mean of generalized exponential distribution with type-I censoring. Quality and Reliability Engineering International. 38(1) 592-614DOI:10.1002/qre.3003 (Impact Factor=2.885 , ISSN: 1099-1638)

20.       Talib, A.,  Ali, S., Shah, I. (2022). Max-EWMA chart for time and magnitude monitoring using exponentially modified Gaussian distribution. Quality and Reliability Engineering International. 38(2) 1092-1111. DOI: 10.1002/qre.3037 (Impact Factor=2.885 , ISSN: 1099-1638)

21.       Shah, I., Iqbal, B., Farhan Akram, M., Ali, S., Dey, S. (2021). Unit Nadarajah and Haghighi Distribution: Properties and Applications in Quality Control. Scientia Iranica, 1-35. DOI: 10.24200/sci.2021.57302.5167 (Impact Factor= 1.435, ISSN: 2345-3605)

22.       N. Bibi, Shah, I, A. Alsubie,  Ali, S, Lone, S. A. (2021).  Electricity Spot Prices Forecasting Based on Ensemble Learning. IEEE Access, vol. 9, 150984-150992, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3126545. (Impact Factor= 3.367, ISSN: 2169-3536)

23.       Ali, S., Khan, H., Shah, I., Butt, M. M., and Suhail, M., (2021), A comparison of some new and old robust ridge regression estimators, Communication in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 50(8), 2213-2231 DOI: 10.1080/03610918.2019.1597119. (Impact Factor=1.118,  Print ISSN: 0361-0918 Online ISSN: 1532-4141)

24.       Shah, I, Akbar, S, Saba, T, Ali,S, Rehman, A, (2021). Short-Term Forecasting for the Electricity Spot Prices With Extreme Values Treatment. IEEE Access, vol. 9, 105451-105462, 2021, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3100076. (Impact Factor= 3.367, ISSN: 2169-3536)

25.       Ashraf, A., Ali, S., Shah, I. (2021). Online disease risk monitoring using DEWMA control chart. Expert Systems with Applications, 180, 115059, DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2021.115059 (Impact Factor=6.954, ISSN: 0957-4174)

26.       Shah, I, Sajid, F, Ali, S, Rehman, A, Bahaj, S, A, and Fati, S, M (2021). On the Performance of Jackknife Based Estimators for Ridge Regression. IEEE Access, 9, 68044-68053. DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3077385 (Impact Factor= 3.745, ISSN: 2169-3536)

27.       Ali, S, Ahmed, N,  Shah, I,  Lone, S, A,  Alsubie, A (2021). Absolute Deviation-Based Control Charts for Monitoring Mean of Weibull Distribution With Type-I Censoring, IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 107519-107547, 2021, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3100845 (Impact Factor= 3.367, ISSN: 2169-3536)

28.       Rafique M, Ali, S, Shah, I, Ashraf, B (2021). A Comparison of Different Bayesian Models for Leukemia Data. American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences, 41(3), 244-258, DOI: 10.1080/01966324.2021.1957730 (Impact Factor= - , ISSN: 0196-6324)

29.       Nabeel, M, Ali, S, Shah, I. (2021). Robust proportional hazard‐based monitoring schemes for reliability data. Quality and Reliability Engineering International. 37(8), 3347-3361, DOI: 10.1002/qre.2921 (Impact Factor=1.718 , ISSN: 1099-1638)

30.       Raza, SMM, Ali, S, Shah, I, Butt, MM. (2021), Conditional mean‐ and median‐based cumulative sum control charts for Weibull data. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 37(2), 502-526 , DOI:10.1002/qre.2746 (Impact Factor=1.718 , ISSN: 1099-1638)

31.       Siddiqa, H., Ali, S. & Shah, I. (2021),  Most recent change point detection in censored panel data. Computational Statistics, 36(1), 515-540, DOI:10.1007/s00180-020-01028-5, (Impact Factor=0.744 , ISSN: 1613-9658)

32.       Shah, I., Lisi, F. (2020). Forecasting of electricity price through a functional prediction of sale and purchase curves. Journal of Forecasting. 39(2), 242– 259, DOI: 10.1002/for.2624, (Impact Factor=0.816, ISSN: 0277-6693, E-ISSN: 1099-131X)

33.       Shah, I., Bibi, H., Ali, S.,  Wang, L., and Yue, Z. (2020), Forecasting one-day-ahead electricity prices for Italian electricity market using parametric and nonparametric approaches, IEEE Access, 8(1), 123104-123113, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3007189. (Impact Factor= 3.745, ISSN: 2169-3536)

34.       Shafqat, M., Ali, S., Shah, I., & Dey, S. (2020). Univariate Discrete Nadarajah And Haghighi Distribution: Properties and Different Methods   of Estimation. Statistica, 80(3), 301-330. DOI:10.6092/issn.1973-2201/9532 (Impact Factor= 0, ISSN: 1973-2201)

35.       Shah, I., Iftikhar, H., & Ali, S. (2020). Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique. Forecasting, 2(2), 163-179, DOI: 10.3390/forecast2020009 (Impact Factor= 0, ISSN: 2571-9394)

36.       Ali, S., Shah, I., Wang, L., and Yue, Z. (2020), A Comparison of Shewhart-type Time-Between-Events Control Charts based on the Renewal Process, IEEE Access, 8(1), 113683-113701, DOI:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3003265. (Impact Factor= 4.098, ISSN: 2169-3536)

37.       Raza, S. M. M ., Ali, S.., Shah, I., Wang, L., and Yue, Z. (2020), On Efficient Monitoring of Weibull Lifetimes Using Censored Median Hybrid DEWMA Chart, Complexity, 2020, Article ID 9232506, 10 pages, DOI: 10.1155/2020/9232506. (Impact Factor= 2.591, ISSN: 1076-2787)

38.       S. Ali, S. Ali, I. Shah, G. F. Siddiqui, T. Saba and A. Rehman. (2020). Reliability Analysis for Electronic Devices Using Generalized Exponential Distribution, IEEE Access, 8, 108629-108644, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3000951. (Impact Factor= 4.098, ISSN: 2169-3536)

39.       Ali, S., Zafar, T., Shah, I., and Wang, L. (2020), Cumulative Conforming Control Chart assuming Discrete Weibull Distribution, IEEE Access, 8 (1), 10123-10133, DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2964602. (Impact Factor= 4.098, ISSN: 2169-3536)

40.       Ali, S., Altaf, N., Shah, I., Wang, L., and Raza, S. M. M. (2020), On the effect of Estimation Error for the Risk-adjusted Charts, Complexity, 2020, Article ID 6258010, 21 pages. DOI:10.1155/2020/6258010 .(Impact Factor= 2.591, ISSN: 1076-2787)

41.       Aslam, M., Ali, S., Yousaf, R., and Shah, I. (2020), Mixture of Transmuted Pareto Distribution: Properties, Applications and Estimation under Bayesian Framework, Journal of the Franklin Institute-Engineering and Applied Mathematics, 357 (5), 2934-2957, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfranklin.2019.11 (Impact Factor= 3.653, ISSN: 0016-0032)

42.       Lisi, F., and Shah, I. (2020). Forecasting next-day electricity demand and prices based on functional models. Energy Systems, 11 (4), 947-979. DOI: 10.1007/s12667-019-00356-w (Impact Factor=0, ISSN: 1868-3967)

43.       Ara, J., Ali, S., and Shah, I., (2020), Monitoring Schedule Time using Exponentially Modified Gaussian Distribution, Quality Technology & Quantitative Management, 17 (4), 448-469, DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2019.1668164. (Impact Factor=0.946, ISSN: 1684-3703)

44.       Ali, S., and Shah, I. (2020), Monitoring Regularly Maintained Systems Based on the Renewal Process with Generalized Exponential Distribution of Time between Events, 48 (5), Journal of Testing and Evaluation, 48, DOI: 10.1520/JTE20180044. (Impact Factor=0.669,  ISSN 0090-3973, E-ISSN: 1945-7553).

45.       Shah, I., Iftikar, H., Ali, S., and Wang, D., (2019). Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Components Estimation Technique, Energies, 12, 2532. DOI: 10.3390/en12132532 (Impact Factor=2.707, ISSN and EISSN: 1996-1073)

46.       Ali, S., Shafqat, M., Shah, I., and Dey, S. (2019), Bivariate Discrete Nadarajah and Haghighi Distribution: Properties and Different Methods of Estimation, Filomat, 33 (17), DOI: 10.2298/FIL1917589A, 5589-5610. (Impact Factor=0.789, ISSN: 0354-5180)

47.       Ali, S., Ali, S., Shah, I., and Khajavi, A. N. (2019), Reliability Analysis for Electronic Devices using Beta Generalized Weibull Distribution, Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions A: Science, 43, (5), 2501-2514. DOI: 10.1007/s40995-019-00730-4. (Impact Factor= 0.692,  ISSN: 1028-6276)

48.       Yousaf, F., Ali, S. and  Shah, I. (2019), Statistical Inference for the Chen Distribution Based on Upper Record Values. Annals of Data Science. 6, 831–851. DOI: 10.1007/s40745-019-00214-7 (Impact Factor= 0,  ISSN: 2198-5804)

49.       Shah, I., and Lisi, F. (2015). Day-ahead electricity demand forecasting with nonparametric functional models. In 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2015.7216741,   1-5. IEEE.

50.       Siddiqa.H., Ali, S. and Shah, I. (2019). cpcens: Changepoint Analysis using Censored Time Series Data. R package version 0.1.0.,

51.       Durante, D., Shah, I., and Torelli, N. (2014). Bayesian nonparametric modeling of contraceptive use in India. arXiv preprint arXiv:1405.7555.

  • Bernoulli-IMS One World Symposium 2020, held virtually, August 24 – 28, 2020.
  • 1st international applied statistics conference (1.UYIK-2020), held virtually, October 1-4,2020, Tokat Turkey
  • 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market, Lisbon Portugal. April 19-22, 2015
  • 13th International Conference On Statistical Sciences, Peshawar Pakistan. March 16-18, 2015
  • International work-conference on Time Series, Granada Spain. June 25-27, 2014
  • Recent advances in statistical inference: theory and case studies, Padova Italy.  March 21-23, 2013

Hierarchical modeling for determinants of out-of-school children in Pakistan

Principal Investigator

0.430 Millions

Higher Education Commission, Pakistan.

01 year

2018- 2019


Monitoring the Regularly Maintained Systems assuming an Exponentiated Class of Lifetime Distribution of the Renewal process

Co-Principal Investigator

0.348 Millions

Higher Education Commission, Pakistan.

01 year



A comparison of Reliability analysis for electronic devices using beta generalized Weibull and generalized exponential distributions

Co-Principal Investigator

0.430 Millions

Higher Education Commission, Pakistan.

01 year

2018- 2019


Modeling and Forecasting complex time series data: A case study from electricity market

Principal Investigator

0.150 Millions

URF, Quaid-i-Azam University.

12 months



Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan.
Tel: +92-51 9064 0000,